Exceeding Moore’s Law

January 6th, 2003 | Posted by paul in Uncategorized

In the most recent IEEE Survey, many think Moore’s Law will be exceeded later this decade:

Among the suggested candidates were various forms of nanotechnology (carbon nanotubes, resonant tunneling diodes, molecular transistors), photonics, giant magnetoresistance-based memories, and three-dimensional IC stacking. “I think that smart developers are investing in biologically based computing, quantum computing, and other alternatives to the IC transistor,” wrote one Fellow. “This area is ripe for a disruptive technology.”

I think Ray Kurzweil was correct in predicting doubling times to decrease to 12 months from its current 18. Orginally Moore’s Law was based on a doubling every 2 years. These increases in computer power not only bring a corresponding increase in productivity, but also enable entirely new ways of doing things. I expect to see a lot of technological disruption with lots of applications we never thought possible before. The Dot-com bubble may have burst, but the true power of a networked world is only just beginning.


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