One Hundred Billion Trillion Habitable Planets

February 23rd, 2009 | Posted by paul in Uncategorized - (Comments Off on One Hundred Billion Trillion Habitable Planets)

274_FirstSeasAccording to Alan Boss, speaking at the American Association for the Advancement of Science’s annual meeting in Chicago, there are one hundred billion trillion habitable planets in our visible portion of the universe. Put another way that’s 1020 habitable planets, or about 15 Billion habitable planets for each and every human being alive today. This single statement along the Kepler launch on March 5th, whose specific mission is to look for habitable planets, has pushed the search for earth like planets to the top of the news.

Alan Boss has written a new book The Crowded Universe which covers his premise. TheTelegraph quoted Boss on the matter in an early report on his presentation:

 “If you have a habitable world and let it evolve for a few billion years then inevitably some sort of life will form on it,” said Dr Boss.

“It is sort of running an experiment in your refrigerator – turn it off and something will grow in there.

“It would be impossible to stop life growing on these habitable planets.”

We shall soon find out about the likelihood of earth like planets over the next four years as Kepler scans a portion of space called the Cygnus-Lyra region (which contains 100,000 target stars). This will be the first time we will have the ability to detect earth-sized planets orbiting within their habitable zone, where liquid water can exist on it’s surface. This will be accomplished by using an extremely sensitive 95 megapixel array of charged coupled devices (CCD).

Below is the area of the ski Kepler will look at.

 

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Going All Electric

February 21st, 2009 | Posted by paul in Uncategorized - (Comments Off on Going All Electric)

How far a car can drive based on either of the following forms of energy, each produced from 100m x 100m (2.5 acres) of land:

FuelEfficiency

Just so you know, the solar is based on only 10% efficient readily available solar cell technology, with 50% now being developed.

 

 

 

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Seawater Greenhouses

February 19th, 2009 | Posted by paul in Uncategorized - (Comments Off on Seawater Greenhouses)

Unlimited energy. Fast-growing fruit. Free air-conditioning. John Pia Craven says we can have it all by tapping the icy waters of the deep. (See Wired Magazine Article).

SeaWaterGreenHouse1

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seawater_Greenhouse
http://www.seawatergreenhouse.com/

This particular technology will work well in arid locations by the ocean.  The technology is called Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC), and promoted in Marshall Savages, Millennial Project: Colonizing the Galaxy in Eight Easy Steps (See Millennial Project 2.0Living Universe Foundationand their blog).  It’s kind of the reverse of geothermal, using deep cold ocean water as the differential, rather than hot underground land water.  Combining the prospects of Deep Geothermal and OTEC could do a lot to bring the world vast amounts of clean energy and water, whether it’s along the Sahara coastline, or in central Iowa.

 

“Water Production and Water Savings

The Seawater Greenhouse converts sea water into fresh water, providing a unique local desalination capability. The water is condensed from water vapour in the air, in much the same way as dew. It is pure distilled water, produced without chemical treatment. The quantity produced depends on the climate – the hotter and sunnier, the more water.

The air entering the Greenhouse is both cooled and humidified. High humidity and low temperatures (the Greenhouse operates at approx. 90% relative humidity) reduces plant transpiration substantially, by up to 80%. This reduces irrigation requirements. The irrigation rate in Tenerife averaged 1.2 litre/day/m2 against 8 litres/day/m2 used by local farmers.

The impact of a new source of water on a local area can be highly beneficial. In Tenerife, a barren area ‘turned green’ as seepage from irrigation reversed saline intrusion and enabled new plant growth.

Of even greater importance is the effect the Seawater Greenhouse can have on reducing demand for mains water and reserves of ground water. Around 8-10 litres per m2 per day can be saved which, on a macro scale, will have an immense impact, freeing existing water supply for other uses.”

Construction and Materials –http://www.seawatergreenhouse.com/construction_and_materials.htm

The Seawater Greenhouse has a specific function – to produce fresh water and cool air while allowing maximum light penetration. The choice of materials is guided by the level of performance required – and cost. Various specifications of Seawater Greenhouse are available.

Low-cost solutions give excellent results. The design requires a light steel structure with polythene covering, cardboard evaporators and a plastic condenser. ABS and MDPE plastics are used for plumbing. Polythene films are cheap and effective. They are specially treated to incorporate ultraviolet-reflecting and infrared-absorbing properties and can be 100% recycled at the end of their useful life.

The cardboard evaporators are strengthened by a surprisingly effective process. They crystallise calcium carbonate from the sea water and harden like sea shells. The process is controllable and the results indicate that the life of the evaporators can be extended almost indefinitely.”

SeaWaterGreenHouse2

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Bye Bye Apocalypse: 5 Hopeful Trends

February 16th, 2009 | Posted by paul in Uncategorized - (Comments Off on Bye Bye Apocalypse: 5 Hopeful Trends)

Ok, the future of doom and gloom is getting old fast. At this point, nobody can predict the future, not even Bruce Sterling, Dmitri Orlov or Warren Buffett. Even the billionaires are getting hosed by the economic downturn.  But what this really proves is we have entered a new era where the old rules no longer apply.  That prospect scares a lot of people, especially the ones who’ve gained the most money and power by maintaining the status quo.  The elite have become naive enough to think they can continue getting away with theft and cronyism without any consequences (i.e. mob revolt), but this time they’re wrong. Asynchronous power is getting stronger all the time, which is why the worlds most powerful military is loosing to a small number of decentralized insurgents. I predicted the current economic crisis back in 2002, in my post Capital, Power and Ecology, simply because business as usual is not sustainable.  It was destined to collapse, and my best guess at the time was that it would happen sometime within the next decade or so.

There is nothing like a crisis to spur rapid evolutionary growth. We are witnessing a level of creative destruction that is unprecedented both globally and historically. Yet solutions for every problem we face are already available right now. We have all the information we need. In fact we are drowning in it.

The current economic collapse, rather than being a indicator of worse things to come, is instead a wake-up call to re-engineer our society from the bottom-up to become more resilient, capable of withstanding unexpected change and upheaval. A resilient economy is also one that is more sustainable and integrated with the planetary ecology, and more responsive to the needs of all of its citizens. Economic growth can and will accelerate, but not by converting precious resources into cheap disposable products, but by making more intelligent use of the materials we already have! There is no reason why this intelligent growth (getting more from less) can’t increase indefinitely, or at least until we’re ready to leave the planet. This is what is called a regenerative economy, or what Bucky Fuller called, ephermalization, which is the idea of progressively doing more with less.

What most doomsayers like Dmitri Orlov don’t get is the process of ephermalization.  His prediction is that our only solution is to accept that we’re all going to be a lot poorer, and we should just get used to it. This is just nonsense, and he’s not helping the situation any. I suppose if wealth is defined as having tons of disposable material goods, then yes our wealth will diminish.  But is that what we really want?  Having an economy that depends on cheap imported products from China, using up more non-renewable resources powered by coal-fired plants polluting the atmosphere while inducing severe climate change, is just plain stupid.  So yes Dmitri is right, we are going to become a lot poorer in terms of Stupid Wealth, but a lot richer in terms of Smart Wealth (Please read the Smart Growth Manifesto for a great explanation of this idea).

The answers to future growth and wealth production are decentralization via localization, regeneration, remediation, renewables, and cybernation all of which results in greaterresiliency.  If we can achieve both local and global resiliency we can grow out of our technological adolescence and become a type 1 civilization.  This means the odds of our species surviving this century increases dramatically, and we can go on to become a space faring immortal civilization should that be our wish.

Here are details for the five trends I listed, and how each can change the world for the better:

Decentralization

This applies across the board.  Anytime critical needs are centralized the resources for those needs are subject to attack and failure.  If one power plant fails a domino effect can take place, knocking more power plants offline. The solution to creating a resilient energy supply that is resistant to overloads or sabotage is to localize power production through locally available renewable resources like solar, wind, and geothermal.  If every community had at least one power generator for every thousand people in combination with more renewable energy being generated on local rooftops, there is nothing short of a nuclear blast that could shut it all down. The more decentralized, localized and miniaturized the power generation, the more resilient and reliable it becomes.  In an ideal world all the power would be generated by the house or building itself.  This applies equally to food production, means of exchange (localized currency), manufacturing and defense. For an interesting read on localized defense, read John Barr’s Power To The People. The topics John covers are both frightening and reassuring. But here is a good excerpt:

A newly vigilant and networked public will push for much greater levels of transparency in government and corporate operations, using the Internet to expose, publish, and patch potential security flaws. Over time, this new transparency, and the wider participation it entails, will lead to radical improvements in government and corporate efficiency.

On the national level, we’ll see a withering of the security apparatus, but quite possibly a flowering in other areas. Energy independence and the obsolescence of conventional war with other countries will reduce tensions between the United States and the rest of the world. The end of oil will also force corrupt states, now propped up by energy income, to make the reforms they need to be accepted internationally, improving life for their people.

Perhaps the most important global shift will be the rise of grassroots action and cross-connected communities. Like the Internet, these new networks will develop slowly at first. After a period of exponential growth, however, they will quickly become all but ubiquitous–and astonishingly powerful, perhaps as powerful as the networks arrayed against us.

Localization

This is really the same thing as decentralization.  The localization movement is definitely picking up steam, as more people are beginning to realize that governments don’t work very well, and needs are best met locally.  The aftermath of Katrina is a classic case of government gone wrong. There is a great book called The Transition Handbook: From Oil Dependency to Local Resilience, which is a users manual for transitioning your community from one dependent on centralized sources of food, energy, and currency to a localized one.  A localized resilient community would be one that generates all of its own food, energy and many or most of its products. Desktop manufacturing will do a lot to bring the power of production down to the local level, reducing the current expensive and polluting means of transporting products from one corner of the globe to another. A product designed in Malaysia can then be sent online to you in Kansas, where it can be manufactured locally. A resilient community would also have a robust locally issued currency that is immune from government issued fiat currency that is fixed and manipulated by the most powerful for their benefit at the expense of everyone else.(See the video Money is Debt, for a fantastic explanation of the evils of corporate banking and government issued fiat currency). Localized currency is the way to go, and their many thriving examples, including the Totnes Pound in the UK, and the Berkshares in Western Massachusetts.  At last count there are over 1200 local currencies in the US alone. The Totnes Pound was the brainchild of the author who wrote The Transition Handbook.  He’s created a network of towns in the UK that are all making the transition to local resilience.

Another great idea is a Time Bank, where you deposit time by doing tasks for other members, who in turn get paid for your services with time they deposited. Time Banks are now operating in 22 countries and growing.  Here’s a good quote from a guy who has combined the two concepts of local currency and time into what he calls Ithaca hours, in Ithaca New York.

We printed our own money because we watched Federal dollars come to town, shake a few hands, then leave to buy rainforest lumber and fight wars. Ithaca’s HOURS, by contrast, stay in our region to help us hire each other. While dollars make us increasingly dependent on transnational corporations and bankers, HOURS reinforce community trading and expand commerce which is more accountable to our concerns for ecology and social justice.”

Regeneration

Regeneration is the ultimate endpoint of comprehensive recycling.  To accomplish this will require two primary fronts of advancement.  The first is new, efficient and cost-effective means to recycle materials we’ve already created, and the second is transitioning more of our products to using materials that can be recycled.  Advances on both fronts will result in a middle ground combination of materials that are biodegradable, low or negative carbon footprint specific, and/or easily recycled non-biodegradable stock.  Advances are happening on all these fronts, and those companies willing to spend money on research and development stand to reap huge financial rewards from innovation in recyclable materials and processes.

In the meantime, there are huge tracts of land that have been destroyed by pollution or non-sustainable agricultural processes.  The solution is to engage in aggressive bioremediation efforts to regenerate the soil, clean up the toxic waste and polluted water stores.  Solutions for this are already here, including nanofilters for cleaning water, microbes for cleaning and rendering harmless toxic waste, and advanced permaculture methods for bringing dead land back to life. John Todd developed what are called Living Machines, that can turn waste water back into drinkable water.  With Todd’s help the Tennessee Valley Authority has already done this with their water supply, and has cleaned up their polluted river in the process. There are many good sources for information on how to  do this for yourself. Some good starter books include Introduction to PermacultureFrom Eco-Cities To Living Machines,  Edible Forest Gardens, and Mycelium Runnng (which shows how to remediate dead soil using mushrooms).

Renewables

This is a no-brainer.  If your energy supply is produced locally from readily available sources such as wind, solar and geothermal, there is no dependence on outsiders, whether it be large energy corporations or foreign states for supple of your energy needs.  The added bonus is the energy is clean, green and non-polluting, which in turn eliminates the expenses added by pollution, including health costs and remediation of polluted lands.

Cybernation

This involves both the continuing transformation of more of our world into bits, which can be transported and replicated at next to no cost, and the increasing intelligent automation of more of what makes our world run.  If more of our services and products are conducted and generated online, it reduces the need for material and energy costs of doing the same thing in the analog world.  Just imagine how much energy costs will be reduced by reducing dramatically the need for transportation of goods, when they can be made locally by the advancement of desktop manufacturing technologies.

Then there is the continuing network effect ov more people get online, more high quality information becoming available, and connections to people and resources becoming more relevant through semantic intelligence, peer-to-peer knowledge exchange and better social networking services.  And with Moore’s Law of accelerating returns we’ll continue to get computer power for less and less money.  Advances in all the areas mentioned above will become accelerated too, as everyone can connect with the right people at the right time, spreading knowledge, know-how and creative solutions more rapidly than ever before.

Resiliency & Anti-Fragility and Thrivability

So what’s the result of all this?  Our quality of life will improve dramatically because we’ll all be wealthier, healthier, and safer from smart growth.  This will produce cost savings in the trillions per year, reductions in pollution and far greater resiliency for our world.  Imagine the incredible reduction in cost when all of the materials that are currently being chewed up by mining, the cutting down of rain forests, and the pollution of lands and waters, are no longer needed.  Imagine if you can get almost everything you need within 5 miles of your home.  Imagine the cost reductions when food, energy and materials are all available locally through permaculture, biointensive gardening, local aquaculture, living machines, abundant clean energy and desktop manufacturing.  It’s a future worth working on, and we can start building it today.

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Sonic Shower

February 15th, 2009 | Posted by paul in Uncategorized - (Comments Off on Sonic Shower)

I first heard a rumor of that something like this that was done in the 1960’s by General Electric.  The rumor goes that in it’s test market the housewives were having spontaneous orgasms while using it. So they pulled the plug.

From Pink Tentacle:

ultrasonic_bath_4

At the 1970 World Expo in Osaka, consumer electronics maker Sanyo demonstrated their vision for the future by showcasing a series of appliances they thought would populate the home of tomorrow. Included was the Ultrasonic Bath, a pod-like human washing machine that cleans, massages and dries the user in a fully automated 15-minute process.

Using a ladder, the bather climbs in through an opening on top of the machine, which stands about 2 meters (6 ft) tall. Once the desired water temperature is set and the main switch is activated, the pre-rinse cycle starts, spraying the user with jets of hot water for 5 minutes.

Next, the chamber fills up with hot water for a 3-minute massage bath. High-pressure jets create a powerful whirlpool, and scores of knobby, golf ball-sized “massage balls” suspended in the water pelt the body, delivering a vigorous massage intended to stimulate blood circulation. An ultrasonic wave generator creates a ticklish cloud of tiny air bubbles that lift dirt from the skin.

ultrasonic_bath_1

The bath is then followed by a 2-minute hot rinse cycle. Finally, a 5-minute dry cycle blasts the user with warm air, while a flood of infrared and ultraviolet light destroys any lingering germs.

Developed as a concept model, the Ultrasonic Bath never made it into our homes. Several years ago, however, Sanyo unveiled the $50,000 HIRB (”Human In Roll-lo Bathing”) system, a compact version designed for use in elderly homes.

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Survival of the Weakest

February 14th, 2009 | Posted by paul in Uncategorized - (Comments Off on Survival of the Weakest)

Although the article does not explain precisely why the weakest of three species in a cyclical hierarchy, it is an interesting read nevertheless.  It compares the process to the rock, paper, scissors game where each species has at least one advantage over the other.

LMU researchers have now simulated the progression of a cyclic competition of three species. It means that each participant is superior to one other species, but will be beaten by a third interaction partner. “In this kind of cyclical concurrence, the weakest species proves the winner almost without exception,” reports Professor Erwin Frey, who headed the study. “The two stronger species, on the other hand, die out, as experiments with bacteria have already shown. Our results are not only a big surprise, they are important to our understanding of evolution of ecosystems and the development of new strategies for the protection of species.”

“Such cyclical interaction is also familiarly termed “rock-paper-scissors” interaction. This is where the rock blunts the scissors, which cut the paper, which in turn wraps around the rock. Together, these non-hierarchical relationships form a cyclical motion. “The game can help describe the diversity of species,” explains Frey. “The background is a branch of mathematics called game theory, and in this case evolutionary game theory. It helps analyze systems that involve multiple actors whose interactions are similar to those in parlor games.”

“This “law of the weakest” even held true when the difference between the competing species was slight. “This result was just as unexpected for us,” reports Frey. “But it shows once more that chance plays a big part in the dynamics of an ecosystem. Incidentally, in experiments that were conducted a couple of years ago on bacterial colonies, in order to study cyclical competition, there was one clear result: The weakest of the three species emerged victorious from the competition.

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Habitable Planets May Be Common

February 9th, 2009 | Posted by paul in Uncategorized - (Comments Off on Habitable Planets May Be Common)

080219-planets-life_big

From the story:

Our own solar system and Milky Way galaxy are home to billions more planets than currently believed, greatly increasing the prospects of finding at least primitive forms of life out there.

Astronomers described new evidence here yesterday suggesting that anywhere between 20 and 60 per cent of all the sun-like stars in our local galaxy are good bets for forming so-called rocky planets, like Earth and Mars.

University of Arizona researcher Michael Meyer, who led the study, said he personally believes that more powerful telescopes will eventually reveal that every sun-like star “will have a rocky planet around it and the diversity of conditions on them will be huge.”

Between 5 and 10 per cent of the 200 billion stars in the Milky Way galaxy are considered sun-like, depending on the strictness of the definition. That would still mean a minimum of 4 billion stars with rocky planets using the lowest percentages.

Its’ refreshing to finally see empirical evidence catch up with what I long thought was a natural by-product of stellar formation.  When a star forms inside a stellar remnant of a previous supernova its gravity accretes the matter inside it’s influence.  Over time, this orbital debris gravitates towards heavier bodies, forming larger and larger chunks with their own increasing amount of gravitational attraction.  Over time all the smaller debris falls into the remaining larger bodies, forming moons and if enough, rocky planets.

Depending on the amount of stellar debris, the amount of stars that form planets will vary in amount and size, but as this study suggests, it’s between 20 to 60 percent of them.   If planets are this common, then the number and frequency of planets within a stars habitable zone increase tremendously.

The next question is how often does life form if conditions are right?  So far, the evidence seems to indicate that this is a relatively common occurrence too, as the basic building blocks of life are already existent in the stellar environment.

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The Post-Twitter Real-Time Globalmind Conversation

February 9th, 2009 | Posted by paul in Uncategorized - (Comments Off on The Post-Twitter Real-Time Globalmind Conversation)

If you haven’t already experienced it, you should try twitter out for a few days.  Follow everyone you think is interesting, and get connected.  Or if you’re in a hurry, check out Twitterfall, and you can watch the ENTIRE conversation in real time. It is important you understand what twitter is before reading any further.

For the moment the twitter population is small, but soon it’s going to take off big, and watching it live will mean seeing hundreds of thousands of tweets per second!  For the moment, it’s not entirely accurate to call it a conversation, as most tweets are one-way, and there is not yet a clients capable of threading or filtering your tweets.  Also you only see the tweets of people you follow, and your tweets are only seen by those who follow you.

Now fast-forward a few years.  Add in sophisticated clients capable of semantic web 3.0 filtering and threading.  This convergence adds an entirely new layer of communication, functionality and possibility.  So much so, that when it first occurred to me, after watching Twitterfall, my head exploded.  I think Nova’s did too, when I pointed it out to him.  He should know as he is leading the development of a web 3.0 service called Twine. Nova Spivack does an outstanding job of describing this convergence in his Twitter + Twine post.

So in a few years everyone’s twitter client will have the ability to sort/search through the entire twitter flood in real time bringing you threads of conversations happening right NOW on what most interests you.  You in turn can respond to those tweets and everyone who wants to can in turn respond to you.  If the client is smart enough, it will filter and display all of this real-time streaming conversation with very colorful and soothing visualizations to maximize your relevant connections at any given time.  This is really difficult to imagine, precisely because nothing like it has ever been possible before.  It would like be like mingling at a very large cocktail party, but in this case you just happen to be listening and in tuning into in to any conversation that interests you at just the right time, with the option of jumping in.  In turn you could start a new conversation, and in less than a minute you have dozens of responses all coming in at light speed. Except this time the cocktail party is the whole planet! Or at least everyone tweeting at that moment.  That’s what makes twitter + semantic intelligence different, is it becomes a real-time global conversation – a global mind running at light speed.  Thousands, and soon millions of conversations all happening simultaneously – all of them co-mingling with each other via real-time semantic filtering, threading, cross-connecting. Each person being a node, or neuron in the global brain. The future is coming awfully fast, and twitter is making that possible.  Given sufficient visualization and semantic intelligence you could surf and trace the history of all of these conversations going back to the very beginning of twitter’s existence.

As Spivack pointed out, Twitter + Twine = Smarter Collective Intelligence:

  1.  In the 1980’s the fax machine made snailmail almost obsolete. Faxing was faster.
  2. In the 1990’s email made faxing almost obsolete. Email was faster.
  3. In the 2000’s social media rose to challenge email’s dominance. The blogosphere became the center of focus.Blogging about something was often a faster way to get attention (to oneself, or to the topic) than emailing people. And you could more easily reach a larger audience.
  4. In the 2010’s it looks like Twitter (and other real-time messaging systems) may become more important than email and even blogging. Twitter is simply faster. And you can reach more people in less time, more interactively, in Twitter than via email.Twitter may overcome the asynchronous nature of the Web. Even search may go “real-time. 

This is revolutionary enough that it may just undermine Google’s current dominance (See Mining the Thought Stream). As more people will want to do real-time searches, rather than sifting though Google’s archive of already documented past information.  They are really two different things.  The web won’t become irrelevant, but the real action will be the conversations happening right NOW. You can do twitter searches right now, including an advanced search based on things like attitude.

But when you add semantic intelligence running automatically in the background, your conversation flows and is updated in real-time to connect with those most interested in hearing and responding to it, and on it goes forever. In other words the conversations begin taking on lives of their own.  With very well designed clients and intuitive graphical interfaces you could get an entirely new way to communicate than humans have ever had before.  It’s not just way faster, it’s also more paradigm busting and disruptive than any previous communication technology that came before it.

Welcome to the future, it is now.

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3 Trillion Suns!

January 7th, 2009 | Posted by paul in Uncategorized - (Comments Off on 3 Trillion Suns!)

galaxy1

That’s the new upper estimate of the number of stars in our galaxy, according to the report in Science News..  Scientist Mark Reid and a team of astronomers at of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, used the Very Long Baseline Array to look at star-forming regions across the galaxy. What they observed is that these stellar nurseries are moving in an elliptical orbit, rather than a circular one, and moving more than 100,000 miles per hour faster than previously believed. This extra velocity can only be explained by much larger overall galactic mass, which Reid estimates is at least 50% larger than previous estimates of galactic size.  These estimates pegged the Milky Way’s stellar population at around 400 billion stars, but now that figure has been revised upward to between 1.8 and 3 trillion!

It’s here that I like to wax mathematical with my own (rough) estimate of Drakes Equation.

Lets assume 3 trillion suns is the more accurate figure.  Based on the growing evidence of an abundance of habitable planets, as evidence by the ever widening range of exoplanets being discovered, it’s not too much of a stretch to assume that there is at least one rocky, Earth-like planet for every 10 G-type stars (ones like our sun)  By earth-like I mean that it is rocky and not gaseous, and it’s size is somewhere between 4000 and 16000 miles in diameter (the Earth is 8000 miles).  However scientist are beginning to believe that both K and F type stars are also long lived enough that planets at an appropriate distance could also be habitable.  In this case habitable is defined as having the right conditions for liquid water.  Also, scientists now believeit is possible for habitable planets to form around binary star systems as well.  Finally there is what is called a habitable zone around the galaxy, which is in my opinion too conservative, and is not supported by the majority of scientists.  If we put this all together, G-type, plus a smaller number of K and M type stars gives us about 8% of the total stars capable of supporting habitable planets.  If we cut out most (but not all) of the multiple star systems, and eliminate all the stars closer than 20,000 light-years to the galactic core (just to be conservative), we’re left with about 4% of the stars in our galaxy that our friendly to life-supporting planets should they exist.  And if 1 out of 10 of those stars actually have an earth-like planet, with 3 trillion total stars, leaves us with about 12 billion Earth-like planets in our galaxy capable of supporting liquid water and in turn carbon-based life as we know it. And I believe this to be a conservative estimate, but we’d really know until the Kepler data comes in.

At this point Drake’s Equation become very murky, as our understanding of the formation and likelihood of life forming, given the right conditions, is almost unknown.  What we do know is that many of the major chemical precursors for life have already been identified in space, including water, alcohol, ammonia, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, and acetic acid, which gives vinegar its piquant flavor.

Either way what these numbers tell us, is that there could be upwards of 12 billion stars with habitable planets around them.  That or these planets could be terraformed to support life by a life-bearing space civilization.  The ideas of billions of living worlds in our very own galaxy is a prospect worthy of investigation, which is why the search for earth-like planets has become the most important objective of space science both at NASA and abroad.

To get a scifi perspective, Star Trek talks of thousands of inhabited worlds, Star Wars of millions, and our very own Milky Way could be home to billions.

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The 2009 quest for Edge is “What will change everything?”. There are lots of great ideas, many of them transhumanist in flavor, including indefinite lifespans and superintelligence. Below are some of my favorites:

The Limits of Reductionism in an Open Universe from Stuart Kauffman:

The evolution of the biosphere, the economy, our human culture and perhaps aspects of the abiotic world, stand partially free of physical law and are not entailed by fundamental physics. The universe is open. Many physicists now doubt the adequacy of reductionism, including Philip Anderson, and Robert Laughlin. Laughlin argues for laws of organization that need not derive from the fundamental laws of physics.

I’ll give one example – autocatalytic sets. The central point about the autocatalytic set theory is that it is a mathematical theory, not reducible to the laws of physics, even if any specific instantiation of it requires actual physical “stuff”. It is a law of organization that may play a role in the origin of life. But then it is not true that the unfolding of the universe is entirely describable by natural law. This contradicts our views since Descartes, Galileo and Newton. The unfolding of the universe seems to be partially lawless. In its place is a radically creative becoming.
The Renaissance of Global Education:

Haim Harari has this to say:

First, a technology-driven globalization is forcing us to see, to recognize and to fear the enormous knowledge gaps between different parts of the world and between segments of society within our countries. It is a major threat to everything that the world has achieved in the last 100 years, including democracy itself. Today’s world, its economy, industry, environment, agriculture, energy, health, food, military power, communications, you name it, are all driven by knowledge. The only way to fight poverty, hunger, diseases, natural catastrophes, terrorism, war, and all other evil, is the creation and dissemination of knowledge, i.e. research and education.  The time is with cheap and ubiquitous communication technology to make all the worlds knowledge available to everyone.

As someone whose spent any years teaching young people, I found Chris Anderson‘s words inspiring.

Take this simple thought experiment. Pick your favorite scientist, mathematician or cultural hero. Now imagine that instead of being born when and where they were, they had instead been born with the same in-built-but-unlocked abilities in a typical poverty-stricken village in, say, Ethiopia of 1980. Would they have made the contribution they made? Of course not. They would never have received the education and encouragement it took to achieve what they did.  Conversely, an unknown but vast number of those grinding out a living today have the potential to be world-changers… if only we could find a way of unlocking that potential.

Two ingredients might be enough to do that. Knowledge and inspiration. If you learn of ideas that could transform your life, and you feel the inspiration necessary to act on that knowledge, there’s a real chance your life will indeed be transformed. Five years ago, an amazing teacher or professor with the ability to truly catalyze the lives of his or her students could realistically hope to impact maybe 100 people each year. Today that same teacher can have their words spread on video to millions of eager students.

The realization that today’s best teachers can become global celebrities is going to boost the caliber of those who teach. For the first time in many years it’s possible to imagine ambitious, brilliant 18-year-olds putting ‘teacher’ at the top of their career choice list. Indeed the very definition of “great teacher” will expand, as numerous others outside the profession with the ability to communicate important ideas find a new incentive to make that talent available to the world.

Achieving A Type I Civilization

A lot my thinking, especially recently, has centered around how we can become a Type 1 Civilization.  Doing so means we have grown up and matured out of our technological adolescence. We’ve achieved global peace and prosperity, created a total regenerative and environmentally sustainable economy, and abundant clean energy.  It means we have learned to live in peace with ourselves and our fragile planet, and our ready to move off-world and begin colonizing the galaxy.  (See my post Healing the Planet, on some ways we might achieve this).

From Michael Shermer:

This January, 2009, in particular, finds us at a crisis tipping point both economically and environmentally. If ever we needed to look to the past to save our future it is now. In particular, we need to do two things: (1) stop the implosion of the economy and enable markets to function once again both freely and fairly, and (2) make the transition from nonrenewable fossil fuels as the primary source of our energy to renewable energy sources that will allow us to flourish into the future. Failure to make these transformations will doom us to the endless tribal political machinations and economic conflicts that have plagued civilization for millennia. We need to make the transition to Civilization 1.0.

Let me explain. In a 1964 article on searching for extraterrestrial civilizations, the Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev suggested using radio telescopes to detect energy signals from other solar systems in which there might be civilizations of three levels of advancement: Type 1 can harness all of the energy of its home planet; Type 2 can harvest all of the power of its sun; and Type 3 can master the energy from its entire galaxy.

We are close. Looking from this past toward the future, we can see that the forces at work that could prevent us from reaching Civilization 1.0 are primarily political and economic, not technological. The resistance by non democratic states to turning power over to the people is considerable, especially in theocracies whose leaders would prefer we all revert to Type 0.4 chiefdoms. The opposition toward a global economy is substantial, even in the industrialized West, where economic tribalism still dominates the thinking of most people. The game-changing scientific idea is the combination of energy and economics — the development of renewable energy sources made cheap and available to everyone everywhere on the planet by allowing anyone to trade in these game-changing technologies with anyone else. That will change everything.

The Transhuman Cambrian Explosion

I think the metaphors most futurists use limit the imagination of what’s possible.  Talk of “machines” or “robots” or “artificial intelligence” simply doesn’t do the post-human universejustice.  I do like Andy Clark‘a crack at it:

But what really matters is the way we are, as a result of this tidal wave of self- re-engineering opportunity, just starting to know ourselves: not as firmly bounded biological organisms but as delightfully reconfigurable nodes in a flux of information, communication, and action. As we learn to celebrate our own potential, we will embrace ever-more-dramatic variations in bodily form and in our effective cognitive profiles. The humans of the next century will be vastly more heterogeneous, more varied along physical and cognitive dimensions, than those of the past as we deliberately engineer a new Cambrian explosion of body and mind.

A Never-Ending Childhood Through Re-establishing Brain Plasticity in Adults

From Leo Chalupa:

Several laboratories have already discovered ways to manipulate the brain in ways to make mature neurons as plastic as during early development. Such studies have been done using genetically engineered mice with either a deletion or an over-expression of specific genes known to control plasticity during normal development. Moreover, drug treatments have now been found to mimic the changes observed in these mutant mice.

In essence this means that the high degree of brain plasticity normally evident only during early development can now be made to occur throughout the life span. Imagine being able to restore the plasticity of neurons in the language centers of your brain, enabling you to learn any and all languages effortlessly and at a rapid pace. This technology could provide a powerful means to combat loss of neuronal connections, including those resulting from brain injury as well as various disease states.

I am optimistic that these treatments will be forthcoming in my lifetime. Indeed a research group in Finland is about to begin the first clinical study to assess the ability of drug treatments to restore plasticity to the visual system of adult humans.

See Alison Gopnik for more implications of this.

Beyond Governments and Markets: Fluid Social Cooperatives

New social systems have been the hope of utopian and hippie thinkers, but maturing networked communications technology could make it practical and achievable.

From Yochai Benkler:

The Great Deflation of 2008 has shown the utter dependence of human society on the possibility of well-functioning government to assure some baseline stability in human welfare and capacity to plan for the future. On the other hand, a gradual rise in volunteerism and cooperation, online and offline, is leading to a reassessment of what motivates people, and how governments, markets, and social dynamics interoperate. I expect the binary State/Market conception of the way we organize our large systems to give way to a more fluid set of systems, with greater integration of the social and commercial; as well as of the state and the social. So much of life, in so many of our societies, was structured around either market mechanisms or state bureaucracies. The emergence of new systems of social interaction will affect what we do, and where we turn for things we want to do, have, and experience.

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